By the Secret Psychic Spy (email@example.com)
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $952.79
Last week: 4/5 Overall 60/105 (57%)
We’re back on the right track again with a healthy profit last week. With two shows to choose from, there were a lot of fights to pick from and I’ve found 5 with which you can make money. I haven’t said it in a while in this column but you should always size your bets the same and if you do that, you should make money with these picks.
I went back over the history since this column began and even though I’m down, it’s because I made some outlandish bets after getting cocky early on. If you’d stayed the course and bet $100 on each pick since this column began, you’d have made a very slight profit. Better yet, if you only went with the picks in the betting game, you’d be way up, even betting both mine and Ryan’s. Something to keep in mind.
This week, we’ve got 1 pick from tonight’s Bellator show on Spike and the rest from the UFC show tomorrow night on FS 1.
Pick 1 – David Rickels (16-3) -200 over John Alessio (35-17) I’m betting $100 to win $50
Rickels is best known for his wild entrances but he’s also a pretty good fighter. Alessio has seen better days in a career going way back to the early days of UFC. Rickels will send his hometown fans home happy with a win.
Pick 2 – Steve Bosse (10-1) +175 over Thiago Santos (10-3) I’m betting $100 to win $175
Taking a bit of a flyer here on the debuting Bosse, who’s looked at as somewhat of a gimmick fighter. But here’s the thing: dude can fight. He’s got wins over Houston Alexander and Wes Sims, both far bigger fighters with a lot of experience. Santos is just 2-2 in UFC and I think he falls below .500 here.
Pick 3 – Sirwan Kakai (11-2) +120 over Danny Martinez (17-6) I’m betting $100 to win $120
I don’t know much about Kakai. He did fight Chris Beal in a fight to get into the TUF house on the same season Martinez did and both lost those fights. Martinez was signed and went on to lose his two UFC fights, at Flyweight. He’s moving up a weight class here and I’m saying he goes to 0-3.
Pick 4 – Steve Montgomery (8-2) -120 over Tony Sims (11-2) I’m betting $100 to win $83.33
Both guys are making their UFC debuts but Montgomery comes in with a slightly better track record, having knocked out former UFC fighter Brock Jardine in his last fight. Sims hasn’t beaten anyone of note and lost to the only name fighter he’s faced (Drew Dober).
Pick 5 – Leandro Silva (17-2-1) -165 over Lewis Gonzales (10-1) I’m betting $100 to win $60.61
Silva’s got the UFC experience and beat tough vet Charlie Brenneman with a first round stoppage in his last fight. Gonzales has some national exposure with World Series of Fighting but is far less experienced and will fall in his UFC debut.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $488.94
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $842.53 (Picked Hein, Alvarez, Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $1,070.18 (Picked Amirkhani, Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
Freddy caught up a little bit last week as Hein was slightly less of a favorite than Mr.Finland but we’re going to change that this week.
I’m taking the debuting Steve Bosse as an underdog in hopes of opening up a bigger lead over young Ryan.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
Eddie Gordon +165 over Antonio Carlos Junior
I don’t like a lot on this card, but I do like the underdog in this one. Gordon has more overall experience than Carlos Junior, and while both former TUF winners have been disappointing in their post-TUF careers, I like Gordon just slightly to get the job done in this one. Carlos Junior is making his middleweight debut too, and Gordon’s experience will just be enough to get him by.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s staying down!